News & Press Archive

More information added to our one-year charts, June 2005.

From today, when you request a chart for a town or a neighbourhood, you will now see the current and 1-year forecast average property prices for all property types at both postcode and town level, in a table below the chart you requested.

PropertyForecasts.co.uk's view on the property market, May-June 2005

Over the last month and into the next, property prices overall are declining slightly, following the trend of steadying prices during the early part of this year.  London prices on average appear to be bucking this trend, with signs of positive moves in the market from earlier in the year.

For the coming year, we still see no significant probability that the decline in prices will continue long-term.  Our forecasts indicate that, on average, house prices are expected to rise by 5 - 7%, with the larger properties in the South rising by around 5%, and in Wales by 7%.  Once again, for most property types, it is Wales which tops the league tables, but with the London area now running in second.

The market for flats & maisonettes continues to be forecast to flourish, with rises expected to reach 6 - 8% and possibly more in some places.  Here, Wales and the North are forecast to be the top performers, with overall average price for flats in England & Wales reaching £158,000 by this time next year.

Average property price currently and in a year's time are forecast to be:

PropertyForecasts.co.uk's view on the property market, March-April 2005

As Spring advances, there are once again signs of potential movement in the housing market.  There has been a small increase across the board in expected average prices over this coming month as opposed to those predicted for last month, although larger properties in London are not seen as achieving the growths expected elsewhere.

As for the coming year, the double-digit growths of the last few years are seen as well past.  In general, average growths for England & Wales over the next year are forecast as around 6-6.5%, with flats & maisonettes forecast to achieve around 7.5% on average.  Wales is still forecast as just top of the league for the top and bottom ends of the market, but slower growths are still featuring in our forecasts throughout.

As always, there are significant variations within regions, down to neighbourhood level, with some neighbourhoods forecast to experience a downturn over the coming year, while others are still forecast to experience fair growth.  For a more accurate picture of what is happening to prices within your immediate locality, you can view free one-year forecasts at www.propertyforecasts.co.uk, or buy neighbourhood-level five-year forecasts for your particular property type.

But please be reassured:  we still do not foresee any significant probability of a major collapse in the housing market over the coming year or two.

TFL wins Government contract, 22/12/2004

Technical Forecasts Ltd (TFL), who provide the information for  www.propertyforecasts.co.uk, have been awarded a contract by the UK Government's Valuation Office Agency (an Executive Office of the Inland Revenue) to provide property market forecasting services for the next three years.  The purpose of this contract is "to formalise and add statistical rigour to information that is used by the Valuation Office in preparing the final advice to the Government."

This is a great vote of confidence by a major UK Government Department in the forecasting methodology used by TFL, as it was won against significant competition.

More postcode updates included from December 2004

With the release of Royal Mail's PAF Update 39, postcodes in Henley-in-Arden, Burntwood, and Cannock have been updated to reflect Royal Mail's changes.

Also incorporated:  some older updates involving  York, Selby, Bridlington and Driffield, Newport and Tredegar, Cambridge, Axminster, Wirral, Birkenhead, Cardiff, Huntingdon, Swindon, Telford, Rugby, Honiton, Carlisle, Guildford and Aylesbury.

(Please note that the Land Registry does not impose the Royal Mail's postcode updates on information provided to it, but for consistency, propertyforecasts.co.uk will update as many as is feasible prior to display on our website.  Some older PAF updates are not yet included in our figures.)

PropertyForecasts.co.uk's view on the property market, December 2004

During November, the UK Government's property registration agency, the Land Registry, released the figures for actual house price sales registered during the third quarter, which showed that house prices increased by just under 7% on average across England & Wales during the third quarter. And this continued - but slowed - increase in prices is reflected in forecasts from this web-site.  Overall, over the next year, average prices are forecast to increase by around 7%, showing a small increase from last month's forecast.

Regionally, the price increases seen in Wales are forecast to be matched now by those in the South West, with the Midlands and Northern areas now forecast to achieve increases just below average.  For all property types bar flats & maisonettes, and in spite of some reductions in prices over the last month or so, London is heading back towards the top spot, with increases of around 8% forecast.

Overall, then, we expect prices on average to continue to increase, but at a much more sustainable level than over the past two years or so.  As always, the market is extremely localised, with some neighbourhoods forecast to experience a downturn over the coming year, while others are still forecast to experience fair growth. 

However, we still do not foresee any significant probability of a major collapse in the housing market over the coming year.

 

PropertyForecasts.co.uk's view on the property market, Nov 2004

Price movements over the last month or so have been generally quite small, reflecting the slow-down in the housing market forced by the increase in interest rates.  We are still forecasting a rise in property prices over the coming year of around 5% on average (a little higher for flats, at around 7%), although over the next few months things may look somewhat dull.

Forecasts for the previous growth regions of the North West and North East are indicating a more moderate sub-5% growth forecast for the coming year, whereas their Southern counterparts are showing signs of potential growth somewhat in excess of this.  The market for flats is forecast to buck this trend, growing faster in Wales and the North than elsewhere.

As always, the market is extremely localised, with some neighbourhoods forecast to experience a downturn over the coming year, while others are still forecast to experience fair growth.  However, we do not foresee any significant probability of a major collapse in the housing market over the coming year.

 

PropertyForecasts.co.uk's view on the property market, Sept 2004

In the course of forecasting property prices, we study the history of selling prices across England & Wales, to give us a sound basis for our forecasts.  This month, our study cements our opinion that the state of the market is changing, with property prices becoming more sustainable over the coming months.

Over the last year, the most lack-lustre performance came from the South Central region, measuring the lowest price growths across all property types at 2-5% in a market that averaged more like 15% increases elsewhere.  However, our forecasts indicate that this is likely to pick up over the coming year, to a more average 6-7%.

In the coming year, prices in London are forecast to edge towards the top spot again at around 8%, along with Wales and the South West. 

Overall average prices are forecast to continue to grow at around 7% over the year, although local averages vary considerably around this, with some neighbourhoods forecast to experience a small fall in prices. The property type seeing most forecast growth is that of flats & maisonettes, at around 8% overall.

 

TFL’s view on property prices, interest rates and incomes, July 2004

 

Our latest residential forecasts are mostly derived from data from a period in which successive governments have pursued policies designed to avoid problems of negative equity. Assuming such policies continue, they suggest that fears of a crash in the housing market are unfounded, though growth for the next five years will be more modest than in recent times. Using data provided by the Land Registry, with whom all residential property sales must be registered, and factoring in over 150 other data series such as unemployment, industrial output, bank rates and business activity, our forecasts indicate that property prices are set to grow modestly until 2008. Incomes and interest rates are also set to rise over this period.

Land Registry prices, calculated from the average of a minimum of three registered sales of property of a given type in a neighbourhood, provide the raw data for our forecasts. We only make predictions where there is sufficient historical Land Registry data for them to be scientifically valid.

TFL is a totally independent forecaster, who deals in neither property nor mortgages and uses an objective, totally automated system to make predictions, designed by an expert in the field of pattern recognition. Using this cutting-edge technology to make the best interpretation of the data available, TFL has found that property prices in London and the South East can expect annual rises of around 5% over the next five years, with variations for particular areas and types of property. Price trends in other regions tend to follow those of the South East, but with varying delays, thus some large price rises of the recent past are likely to cause temporary house-price inflation in some price-lagging regions, but there do not seem to be any obvious large price rises to follow.

TFL’s basic conclusion is that recent interest-rate changes and public pronouncements seem to be dampening the housing market as intended.

Forecasts derived from historical and current data indicate a substantial reduction in recent house price inflation. TFL also forecast that incomes are set to rise steadily over the same period, at a similar rate to house prices in the South East region. The bad news for property buyers is that interest rates are also predicted to rise in a series of ramps followed by plateaus, hitting 5% in 2005, rising steadily to 5.5% at the beginning of 2007 and then reaching 6% in 2008; but we add the caveat that more distant forecasts are progressively less certain. This will add to fears about the debt repayment problem and make mortgages less attractive than the recent past.

The good news for first time buyers is that it looks as if house price inflation is finally being brought under control.