House price news & Property Forecasts' press releases

May 2007  Technical Forecasts Ltd releases a Discussion Paper: "Informative Statistics for Loan Portfolio Management"

TFL, owners of well-regarded web-site www.PropertyForecasts.co.uk, have released a Green Paper entitled "Informative Statistics for Loan Portfolio Management". 

In support of international Basel II principles, a method has been developed to assess net exposure across a loan portfolio on the basis of probability of default (PD), exposure at default (EAD) and loss given default (LGD) on individual loans, and to generate further statistics for its optimal management.   TFL invites feedback on this paper, and the principles and methodologies discussed, from knowledgeable readers within the lending community.

The Green Paper can be downloaded from our corporate website http://www.tfl.biz/.

March 2006   Benefits to First-time Buyers in checking forecasts of property prices

www.PropertyForecasts.co.uk is designed to give users an overview of what has been, is and might be happening to property prices in a town or a neighbourhood (a postcode sector, averaging around 2000 dwellings).  Each month, charts of local property prices are posted to the website, to indicate both historic and, uniquely, forecast movements in property prices, at a very local level.

Average property prices from the Land Registry, the definitive authority for actual prices paid for property in England & Wales, are smoothed, and then forecast, where mathematically feasible, for up to five years.  An indication is also offered on the website for historical accuracy of that local forecast.

So why should first-time buyers be interested?  Usually, first-time buyers are looking to take the first step into property ownership, which will enable them to move on as finances and circumstances permit.  Thus they are not only interested in what they have to pay now, but what they might get when they come to sell in a few years' time, to help them move to the next rung in the property ladder.  What PropertyForecasts.co.uk offers is a very local view of potential property movements.  While of course no forecast can be guaranteed, this can help people assess the long-term price behaviour of a property they may be considering buying, to help them take that first step.

The first step is always the most difficult for first-time buyers - but equally, they are in the best position to optimise their future property options, since they are not encumbered with having to sell in order to buy.  Checking out a proposed purchase on PropertyForecasts.co.uk can help them do this, to give them the best chance of capital growth into the future.

Oct 2005  CB Richard Ellis-Hamptons International subscribe to PropertyForecasts

Obviously the business of forecasting property prices is always under suspicion, especially when carried out to neighbourhood-level, as provided by Technical Forecasts Ltd (TFL). However, independent verification of the accuracy of TFL's forecasts from last year has been received from Jennet Siebrits of the joint venture company
CB Richard Ellis Hamptons International.

Download the .pdf detailing her findings.

CB Richard Ellis Hamptons International now subscribes to TFL's website www.propertyforecasts.co.uk

Historic Accuracy figures available, July 2005

From July 2005 an indication of the historic accuracy of the forecasts for each postcode area will be shown in the free 1 year summary.

read more about the historic accuracy of our forecasts

Property Forecasts also makes regular contributions to:

• Sunday Express (1st Sunday in every month – Property Price Index)
• Property Forecast magazine (Town or city report approx quarterly. )
  • June 2003 – Ipswich
  • Sept 2003 – Cardiff
  • January 2004 – Nottingham
  • April 2004 - Brighton, E Sussex
  • August 2004 - Sheffield
  • December (upcoming) - Bristol

[ News & Press Archive ]

Books & papers by Company members:

“Pattern Recognition & Trading Decisions” Chris Satchwell (pub. Sep 2004)

What the USA-based publishers, McGraw-Hill, say: “Success in technical analysis is all about recognizing, and quickly acting on, patterns of market behavior. Pattern Recognition and Trading Decisions shows active traders how to realize when a pattern is developing, distinguish between a genuine pattern and a misleading series of events, and apply this recognition for success in specific trading situations. A how-to guide that steers clear of difficult calculations and formulas…”

Dec04:  Chris Satchwell's book is currently number 2 on Amazon's 2004 Top 10 Editor's Picks for the "Investing & Personal Finance" category.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/feature/-/546894/ref=ed_bb_bb_editors_inv/103-4391572-5230218

 

[The mass forecasting technology used by Property Forecasts was developed primarily by Chris Satchwell, using his expertise in pattern recognition in combination with forecasting methodology unique to Technical Forecasts Ltd, described in the paper below.]

 

'Forecasting values of commercial and residential property using non-linear mathematical and statistical techniques'

- presented at the 2002 Joint Glasgow Conference of the European Real Estate Society (ERES) and the Cutting Edge Conference of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS):

Forecasting methods currently available to practitioners have been of limited use because of their inability to detect and model the past patterns underlying property data. Additional restrictions on accurate forecasts are imposed by the inherent linear characteristics of most models which fail to recognize the complexities of real property markets. Further complications arise from issues such as lack of reliable historical data, short data histories or temporally sparse data.

Property forecasts can be improved by employing 'associated' or parallel series in forecasting models. Methods are described for matching a model to the complexity of the target data series and combining forecasts from many models to reduce errors in final forecasts. Accuracy statistics and examples of residential and commercial forecasts are included.